KKM Predicts 4,000 Cases By End Of June If Infectivity Rate Remains At 0.9

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The Covid-19 infectivity rate in Malaysia is finally dropping with the R-naught measuring less than 1.0 for the past nine days.

If the infectivity rate remains at 0.9 or less, Covid-19 cases are expected to drop to 4,000 daily by the end of June, which is also the end of Phase 2 of the full Movement Control Order (FMCO), according to the graphs shared by Health Director-General Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah.

The infectivity rate is measured using the R-naught value. For example, an R-naught value of 1.5 means that one infected person is able to spread the virus to 1.5 other individuals.

With the infectivity rate at 0.92 as of 14 June, the Covid-19 situation could be improving after two weeks of the full MCO. However, nothing is certain yet as cases are still in the thousands with close to 100 people dying every day. Not to mention intensive care units (ICU)s are operating over their maximum capacity while frontliners are at their wits’ end.

Even though daily cases have dropped below 5,000 yesterday (14 June), this is not the time to relax as the country still needs your help to curb the spread of Covid-19.

Previously, Defence Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob said that the Movement Control Order 3.0 will be reviewed after the daily Covid-19 cases drop to 4,000.

He said the plan was not to end the MCO 3.0 but to relax the existing standard operating procedures (SOP), adding that the government will only end the MCO as a whole after the country achieves at least 60% herd immunity, reported Astro Awani. He also said that the meeting to discuss the exit of the MCO will look at all aspects.

“I have been informed by Health Minister Datuk Seri Dr Adham Baba and its director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah that when the cases are down to 4,000, we will review the MCO. It does not mean we will end the MCO but may review the SOPs to determine which ones can be relaxed a bit,” he said, according to The Edge Markets.

“However, KKM will see and advise the National Security Council (MKN) at its (coming) special meeting to see what we can do when the infection level goes down to 4,000 cases or below. We do not promise to end it or anything else, but just getting advice.”

As of 14 June, the infectivity rate for each state are as follows: